Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2263
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 2263 · TPA → MSP
departs 6:27 AM ET · arrives 8:56 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Mon 10/12 5%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 5%
Thu 10/15 6%
Fri 10/16 7%
Sat 10/17 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
3%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.