Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2895
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 2895 · EWR → MSP
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 5:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Mon 10/12 26%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 24%
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MSP that day
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.