Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2946
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
DL 2946 · BZN → MSP
departs 1:57 PM MT · arrives 5:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 7%
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BZN that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
This flight has been late 13% of the time recently
Weather at each end
BZN (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.