Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
F9 1407 · BUF → ATL
departs 8:35 AM ET · arrives 10:50 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 22%
Fri 10/16 35%
Sat 10/17 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.