Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 1407 · BUF → ATL
departs 1:33 PM ET · arrives 3:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14
Fri 10/16 35%
Sat 10/17 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.