Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Today
F9 3286 · DEN → CVG
departs 11:18 AM MT · arrives 4:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/14 35%
Thu 10/15 35%
Sun 10/18 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.