Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 3286 · DEN → CVG
departs 2:48 PM MT · arrives 7:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 10/14 37%
Thu 10/15
Sun 10/18 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
53%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from DEN are often late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.31 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.