Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3566
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
F9 3566 · DEN → DTW
departs 10:24 AM MT · arrives 3:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from DEN are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at DTW that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.