Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4173
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
F9 4173 · PHL → MCO
departs 2:52 PM ET · arrives 5:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 23%
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 43%
Sat 10/17 37%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from PHL are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.