Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4173
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 4173 · PHL → MCO
departs 2:53 PM ET · arrives 5:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 43%
Sat 10/17 37%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from PHL are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.