Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 325
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
IB 325 · MAD → JFK
departs 5:35 PM CEST · arrives 7:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 36%
Sat 10/17 34%
Sun 10/18 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD
Weather at each end
MAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.