Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 325
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
IB 325 · MAD → JFK
departs 4:52 PM CEST · arrives 6:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 36%
Sat 10/17 34%
Sun 10/18 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD
Weather at each end
MAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.