Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
STARLUX · FLIGHT JX 31
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
JX 31 · SEA → TPE
departs 1:35 AM PT · arrives 5:35 AM CST
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at TPE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPE?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
1am departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPE (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.