Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
STARLUX · FLIGHT JX 31
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
JX 31 · SEA → TPE
departs 1:18 AM PT · arrives 5:21 AM CST
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at TPE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPE?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
1am departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SEA that day
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
TPE (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.