Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 421
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
LH 421 · BOS → FRA
departs 10:11 PM ET · arrives 11:04 AM CEST
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at FRA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FRA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
10pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
FRA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.