Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 421
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
LH 421 · BOS → FRA
departs 10:10 PM ET · arrives 11:02 AM CEST
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Tue 10/13 25%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at FRA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FRA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
10pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.08 in
FRA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.