LH 423 · BOS → FRA

departs 6:10 PM ET · arrives 6:39 AM CEST

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FRA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

FRA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LH 423 · BOS → FRA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FRA?