Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 423
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
LH 423 · BOS → FRA
departs 6:09 PM ET · arrives 6:46 AM CEST
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 10/13 33%
Wed 10/14 23%
Thu 10/15
Sat 10/17 24%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at FRA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FRA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FRA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.