Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 3474 · CWA → ORD
departs 6:24 AM CT · arrives 7:43 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Mon 10/12 7%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave CWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at CWA that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
CWA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.07 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.