Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3474 · CWA → ORD
departs 6:26 AM CT · arrives 7:54 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/12 11%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave CWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
CWA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.