Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3622
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
MQ 3622 · DCA → VPS
departs 10:26 AM ET · arrives 12:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 9%
Thu 10/15 17%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at VPS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to VPS?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at VPS
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
VPS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.