Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3689
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 3689 · MIA → EYW
departs 4:09 PM ET · arrives 5:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Mon 10/12 13%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EYW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.