Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 3811 · ILM → ORD
departs 7:15 AM ET · arrives 8:47 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Mon 10/12 10%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
ILM is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 8,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.