Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3811 · ILM → ORD
departs 7:19 AM ET · arrives 8:54 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Mon 10/12 10%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.