MQ 3821 · TUL → DFW

departs 5:04 AM CT · arrives 6:24 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from TUL are usually not late

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3821 · TUL → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?