Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 3821 · TUL → DFW
departs 5:04 AM CT · arrives 6:25 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Tue 10/13 5%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 7%
Sat 10/17 6%
Sun 10/18 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at TUL that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from TUL are usually not late
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.80 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.