Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3912
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
MQ 3912 · MIA → MBJ
departs 12:20 PM ET · arrives 1:17 PM EST
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/13
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MBJ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MBJ?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MBJ that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MBJ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MBJ (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.