Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3918
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
MQ 3918 · ORD → GRB
departs 8:04 AM CT · arrives 9:08 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRB more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at GRB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRB?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 467 ft forecast at GRB that day
↑
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into GRB at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
GRB (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.