Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3918
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3918 · ORD → GRB
departs 8:02 AM CT · arrives 9:03 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRB more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at GRB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GRB?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.33 in
GRB (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.