Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3985
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 3985 · XNA → DFW
departs 7:13 AM CT · arrives 8:45 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Mon 10/12 21%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
XNA is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.