Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3985
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3985 · XNA → DFW
departs 7:13 AM CT · arrives 8:45 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
XNA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at DFW that day
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.