Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4032
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4032 · ICT → DFW
departs 9:27 AM CT · arrives 10:55 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Mon 10/12 18%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
ICT is prone to delays
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DFW that day
Weather at each end
ICT (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.