Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4032
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 4032 · ICT → DFW
departs 9:38 AM CT · arrives 11:07 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 25%
Wed 10/14 37%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 11%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ICT that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
ICT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ICT (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.