Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4036
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4036 · HOU → DFW
departs 9:57 AM CT · arrives 11:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 16%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
9am departures from HOU are usually not late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.