Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4036
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4036 · HOU → DFW
departs 9:55 AM CT · arrives 11:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Mon 10/12 13%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 16%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
9am departures from HOU are usually not late
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.