Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4091
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4091 · CLE → DCA
departs 9:32 AM ET · arrives 11:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at CLE that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
CLE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.