Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4104
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
MQ 4104 · PHX → DEN
departs 12:26 PM MT · arrives 3:25 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 56%
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.