Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4104
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 4104 · PHX → DEN
departs 12:24 PM MT · arrives 3:23 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/13 24%
Wed 10/14 37%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.