Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4212
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
MQ 4212 · ORD → PVD
departs 8:18 AM CT · arrives 11:33 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PVD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
PVD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.