Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4212
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4212 · ORD → PVD
departs 8:34 AM CT · arrives 12:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
PVD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.25 in
PVD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 233 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.