Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4228
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
MQ 4228 · TPA → MIA
departs 3:37 PM ET · arrives 4:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 32%
Fri 10/16 30%
Sat 10/17 30%
Sun 10/18 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.