Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4264 · FSD → ORD
departs 7:10 AM CT · arrives 8:59 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Mon 10/12 13%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 25%
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD
Weather at each end
FSD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 8,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.