Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4264 · FSD → ORD
departs 7:08 AM CT · arrives 8:54 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Mon 10/12 13%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD
Weather at each end
FSD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.