Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5071 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

OH 5071 · BTV → DCA

departs 12:22 PM ET · arrives 2:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at BTV that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

BTV (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.08 in

DCA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5071 · BTV → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?