Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5075 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

OH 5075 · BUF → DCA

departs 3:11 PM ET · arrives 4:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at BUF that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.13 in

DCA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5075 · BUF → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?