Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5128 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

OH 5128 · TUL → DCA

departs 4:24 PM CT · arrives 8:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5128 · TUL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?