Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5144 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

OH 5144 · ROC → DCA

departs 11:11 AM ET · arrives 12:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

DCA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5144 · ROC → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?