Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5231 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

OH 5231 · BTR → DCA

departs 7:00 AM CT · arrives 10:44 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at BTR that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BTR (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5231 · BTR → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?