Schedule: FAA flight plans.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5265 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 9:12 PM ET (18 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

OH 5265 · PHL → DCA

departs 8:37 PM ET · arrives 9:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5265 · PHL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?