OH 5457 · ROC → DCA

departs 5:09 PM ET · arrives 6:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC

↑ 5pm departures from ROC are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.06 in

DCA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5457 · ROC → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?